RT · LIVE
WTI/M26 107.12 +7.20% BRENT/M26 118.03 +6.84% RBOB — — HO — — WTI−BRENT —
29 APR 2026 · 12:14 ET
DOOMERCAST / the regime today
next print
05/06 10:30 ET · in 6d 22h
REGIME · APR 29 · level 4 of 5

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Loading regime context…

REGIME GAUGE
1 calm
2 normal
3 tight
4 doomsday
5 black swan
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THE FORECAST · week ending may 1 · releases wed may 6 10:30 ET

The five numbers.

model v0 · OLS balance-identity
last run 29 apr 12:00 ET
commercial crude
million barrels · Δ week
−2.0
range −5.0 / +1.0
DRAW · MED CONF
cushing, OK
million barrels · Δ week
−0.5
range −1.5 / +0.5
DRAW · MED CONF
motor gasoline
million barrels · Δ week
−1.5
range −4.0 / 0.0
DRAW · HIGH CONF
distillate fuel
million barrels · Δ week
−1.5
range −3.0 / 0.0
DRAW · HIGH CONF
refinery util
% operable capacity
90.5%
range 90.0 / 91.5
RISING · HIGH CONF
AIS · tanker flows · trailing 7 days

What's moving in and out.

daemon · —
AIS daemon collecting data — port visits will appear here once tankers cross geofence boundaries (typically 6+ hours after first start).
US LIQUIDITY · TGA + RRP + Fed balance sheet

How much money is in the system.

awaiting first Claude Code routine run…
source · treasury fiscal data + ny fed + FRED
cadence · daily (TGA, RRP) + weekly (WALCL, deposits)
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POSITIONING · cot + refinery health

Who's long, who's short, who's running hot.

cot · cftc weekly
refinery · eia w-series + 5y seasonal
MANAGED MONEY · NET LENGTH
net = long − short, % of open interest. Stretched-long > 8%
REFINERY HEALTH
—
current —% · seasonal —%
−50+5
4w trend
12w band
named outages
EXPECTATIONS · forecasting next print

Where consensus is, where we are.

loading…
consensus · trading economics + manual
api · tue 4:30pm ET (covers same week)
series our model consensus api report model − cons directional read
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THE CALL · how to position

Generating call from latest forecast…

Body text loads from forecast.json on hydration.

TAPE TO WATCH · next 5 sessions

What can move it.

LAST SCORED PRINT · loading…

How the model did vs reality.

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backfilled · no consensus tracked historically
—
series model forecast EIA actual error direction result
loading real backfilled data…
SCOREBOARD · trailing 52 weeks (will fill as we run)

How the model has done.

DIRECTION HIT RATE
—%
all five series · — of —
CRUDE RMSE
—mb
backfilled, no look-ahead bias
WITHIN ±1 mb
—%
— of all forecasts
SCORED WEEKS
—
backfill + live runs · v0.5
METHODOLOGY · model v0

The balance identity, codified.

ΔCrude = production
       + imports
       − exports
       − refinery_inputs
       + ε

refinery_inputs = util_seasonal × operable_capacity
util_seasonal = OLS( util ~ week_of_year + util_lag1 )

# products
ΔGasoline   = 0.475 × refinery_inputs + imp − exp − demand
ΔDistillate = 0.325 × refinery_inputs + imp − exp − demand
production · latest—EIA W
imports · 4w avg—EIA W
exports · 4w avg—EIA W
refinery inputs—EIA W
refinery utilization—EIA W
last EIA period—data